What is the future for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief cooperation in the Indo-Pacific ?

Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations are of increasing importance in international relations and one of the fastest growing areas of military cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. While HADR is, and should remain, a predominantly civilian activity, armed forces are used to complement existing relief mechanisms by providing specific support mainly due to their logistical capabilities. As a result, HADR operations are playing an ever more significant role in the activities of the armed forces and in discussions in regional security institutions. This phenomenon is likely to increase in the years to come due to the foreseeable rise in the number of natural disasters, linked in part to climate changeAccording to the Brussels-based Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), the number of catastrophic events (excluding the covid-19 pandemic) would have risen to 432 by 2022, compared with an annual average of 357 during the period 2001-2020. Quoted in Upadhyaya Shishir, "Naval humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) operations in the Indo-Pacific region: need for fresh thinking", Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, 2023, vol.18, n°3, pp. 282-294, https://doi.org/10.1080/19480881.2023.2198887 , but also to the growth of the world's population.

Against a backdrop of increasingly polarised international relations, this change in HADR actors can transform an initially cooperative activity into a potential zero-sum game between aid-providing countries in which the speed of intervention is a factor not only of humanitarian effectiveness but also of influence. HADR operations demonstrate the level of commitment of the intervening country in a region, facilitate access to the recipient country, demonstrate the operator's capabilities and know-how, and offer opportunities for coalition-building and engagement with new partnersCapie David, “The US and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) in East Asia: Connective Coercive and Non-Coercive uses of military Power”, Journal of Strategic Studies, 2015, vol. 38, n°3, pp. 309-331, https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2014.1002914. They also offer a means of increasing military interoperability between partners in a context perceived as less "threatening" by neighbouring countriesLeahy Peter, “Good Deeds and Good Strategy: Humanitarian and Disaster Relief Operations”, The Strategist, 8 April 2013.. In this respect, it is no exaggeration to say that HADR operations blur the lines between “soft” and “hard” power activitiesSoft power is a concept developed by Joseph Nye at the end of the Cold War. It refers to a state's ability to seduce and attract. Soft power results not so much from the implementation of a policy as from the attractive effects of a specific political, economic or cultural model. Although it targets public opinion, it is more akin to a form of seduction than to a political approach structured around defined objectives.  .

The purpose of this paper is to examine the possible future of the military component of HADR operations. It takes note of the growing strategic dimension of HADR activities, the qualitative changes in which are, in addition to climate change, the result of growing political polarisation in the Indo-Pacific. With this in mind, it analyses the existing collective structures for HADR and considers whether they meet needs, as well as their current and potential political impact.

In doing so, it notes that the collective effort in the area of HADR is based on a limited number of Western and non-Western nations. This is likely to further increase the dilemma for all nations when allocating resources to warfare activities on the one hand and humanitarian assistance on the other. Furthermore, although several Indo-Pacific states have made efforts to strengthen their capabilities and improve civil-military coordination mechanisms, a notable resource imbalance persists among these states. This leaves a need to coordinate and streamline the  efforts among them to ensure a more equitable distribution of capabilities and prevent duplication of effort in times of crisis.