Research team

Bruno Tertrais

Deputy director

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[ +33 1 43 13 77 67 | +33 6 72 91 71 66 ]

Biographical information

Expertise

International relations and geopolitics, Conflicts, US strategy, Transatlantic relations, Security in the Middle East, Security in Asia, Nuclear proliferation, Nuclear deterrence, Military strategy.

Professional experience

Senior Research Fellow, FRS (2001-2016) ; Assistant to the Director of Strategic Affairs, Defense ministry (1993-2001) ; Visiting Fellow, RAND Corporation (1995-1996) ; Director of the Civilian Affairs Committee, NATO Parliamentary Assembly (1990-1992) ; Research assistan, NATO Parliamentary Assembly (1989).

Other permanent activities

Member, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) ; Member of the editorial board, The Washington Quarterly ; Member of the editorial board, Strategic & Military Affairs ; Member of the advisory board, Champs de March ; Member of the executive committee, Maritime Strategy Center, Haifa University. Scientific adviser to High Commissioner for Planning.

Education

Graduate, Paris Political Science Institute (1984) ; Masters in Public law, University of Paris-10 (1984) ; DEA in Comparative politics, University of Paris-10 (1985) ; Doctorate of the Paris Political Science Institute (1994).

Miscellaneous

Member, White paper Commission on defense and national security (2007-2008)
Member, White paper Commission on foreign and European policy (2008)
Vauban Prize (2010)
Member, White paper Commission on defense and national security (2012-2013)
Brienne Prize (2016)
George Erhard Prize (2017)

Publications

Books, monographies, studies

What Future for Nuclear Deterrence ?, Fondation pour l’innovation politique, October 2022
Entangling Alliance ? Europe, the United States, Asia and the Risk of a New 1914, The Atlantic Council of the United States, 27 June 2022
Principles of Nuclear Deterrence and Strategy, NDC Research Paper n° 19, NATO Defence College, May 2021
Year of the Rat. The Strategic Consequences of the Coronavirus Crisis, Note de la FRS n°17/2020, April 6, 2020
NATO is doing fine, but the Atlantic Alliance is in trouble, NDC Policy Brief n°8, April 2019
The Finger on the Button : The Authority to Use Nuclear Weapons in Nuclear-Armed States, CNS Occasional Paper n° 45, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, February 2019 (avec Jeffrey Lewis)
The European Dimension of Nuclear Deterrence: French and British Policies and Future Scenarios, Finnish Institute for International Affairs, 22 November 2018
North Korea, an Embrace Before the Apocalypse ?, Institut Montaigne, September 2018
The demographic challenge : myths and realities, Institut Montaigne, July 2018
Beyond the Red Line : the United States, France, and Chemical Weapons in the Syrian War, 2013-2018 (with Jeffrey Lewis)
Article 5 of the Washington Treaty : Its Origins, Meaning and Future, Research Paper No. 130, April 2016
The Diplomacy of Red Lines, (Recherches & Documents No.02/2016, FRS, February 2016)
Governing Uranium in France, DIIS Report 2014:17 (Danish Institute for International Studies, 2014)
The Middle East Peace Process: Time for a Reality Check, GMF - FRS, 15 November 2013
France : Strategic Posture Review (World Politics Review, 2013)
Nuclear Weapons Security Crises: What Does History Recommend? (with Henry D. Sokolski) (Carlisle: Strategic Studies Institute, 2013)
Pakistan’s nuclear programme: a net assessment (Recherches & Documents No.04/2012, FRS, 13 June 2012)
Pakistan’s Nuclear and WMD Programmes: Status, Evolution, and Risks, EU Non-proliferation Consortium, NonProliferation Paper No. 12, July 2012
Entente Nucléaire. Options for UK-French Nuclear Cooperation, BASIC Trident Commission, June 2012
Thinking About Strategy. A Tribute to Sir Michael Quinlan, Paris, L’Harmattan, 2011
In Defense of Deterrence, Paris, IFRI, 2011
After Iran: Prospects for Nonproliferation in North Africa, Washington, The Nonproliferation Education Center, 2010
What Might the Middle East Look Like by 2025? (with Ariel E. Levite), CERI Strategy Papers, 2008
The Coming NATO Nuclear Debate (Madrid: Real Instituto Elcano, October 2008)
The French White Paper on Defense and National Security (Madrid: Real Instituto Elcano, August 2008)
War Without End (New-York : The New Press, 2005)

Articles and books chapters

« NATO at 75 : What Explains NATO’s Success ? », National Institute for Public Policy, July 2024
« The New Cold Is a War of Two ‘Worlds’, Not Two Blocs », World Politics Review, November 8, 2023
« The Role of Security Guarantees », Comment is Freed, July 15, 2023
« What Security Guarantees for Ukraine ? », Notes de la FRS, n° 14/2023, June 19, 2023
« A Moderate, Europe-Compatible Nuclear Posture Review », in Keitth Payne (dir.), Expert Commentary on the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, National Institute for Public Policy, Occasional Paper, vol. 3, n° 3, March 2023
« After the Fall. Must We Prepare for the Breakup of Russia ? », Institut Montaigne, 20 March 2023
« The Consequences for Europe of a Successful Chinese Invasion of Taiwan », in David Santoro & Ralph Cossa (ed.), The World After Taiwan’s Fall, Issues & Insignts vol. 23, Pacific Forum, February 2023
« The JCPOA is dead. Now what ? », Trends, 20 January 2023
« The Fall of Russia », Institut Montaigne, 14 December 2022
« An Evolutionary, Not Revolutionary Concept » in Thierry Tardy (ed.), NATO’s New Strategic Concept, NDC Research Paper n° 25, September 2022
« The Never-Ending Iranian Nuclear Saga is Nowhere Near Its Conclusion », Institut Montaigne, 2 September 2022
« The Ukraine war : Nuclear risks and consequences », 19 juillet 2022
« Back to the Future ? NATO after Madrid », Institut Montaigne, 7 July 2022
« Tell Me How It Ends : Analogies and Scenarios for the Ukraine war », Institut Montaigne, 2 mars 2022
« Why Ukraine Matters to Russia : The Demographic Factor », Institut Montaigne, 14 February 2022
« Is It 1981 All Over Again ? », Institut Montaigne, 12 avril 2022 (avec Joseph de Weck)
« Take Putin’s Threats Over Ukraine Seriously, Not Literally », World Politics Review, 24 mars 2022
« Tell Me How It Ends : Analogies and Scenarios for the Ukraine War », 2 March 2022
« Real and Imagined Challenges to Strategic Stability », The Hague Center for Security Studies, 14 February 2022
« Why Ukraine Matters to Russia : The Demographic Factor », Institut Montaigne, 11 February 2022
« Of Ultimatums and Ukraine, and Why NATO Enlargement Is Not the Problem », Institut Montaigne, 7 January 2022
AUKUS and Its Implications for Asia, US-European Relations, and Non-proliferation, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, 20 December 2021
« Reassurance and Deterrence in the Mediterranean: the Franco-Greek Defense Deal », Institut Montaigne, 17 November 2021
« The Doomsayers Are All Wrong About The Future of Security Alliances », World Politics Review, 9 November 2021
« China Crosses the Rubicon : A Scenario for War Over Taiwan », Notes de la FRS n° 37, 22 October 2021
« Climate Refugees – Do Not Hype Up The Problem », Institut Montaigne, 15 October 2021
« After the shock: France, America and the Indopacific », PacNet, 20 September 2021
« The seven demographic trends that will determine our global future », World Politics Review, 24 août 2021
« Endgame in Afghanistan : should we be worried ? », Institut Montaigne, 18 August 2021
« Armenia-Azerbaidjan, the fire beneath the ashes », Institut Montaigne, 2 August 2021
« The persistence of borders in a globalized world », World Politics Review, 22 juin 2021
« Migrations, mobility and pandemics : return to normalcy ? », Institut Montaigne, 7 juillet 2021
« The persistence of borders in a globalized world », World Politics Review, 22 juin 2021
« Does China’s Population Bust Herald Our Own ? », Institut Montaigne, 26 May 2021
« Europe Can Play a Role in a Conflict Over Taiwan. Will It ? » ?, World Politics Review, 23 March 2021
« The UK’s Integrated Review : What Global Britain Means for France » (with Georgina Wright), Institut Montaigne, 19 March 2021
« Europas Testfall liegt im Mittelmeer », Der Spiegel, 19 février 2021
The Making of Macron’s Worldview, World Politics Review, 29 janvier 2021
« Taiwan Attrition : China Crosses the Rubicon » in Florence Gaub (dir.), Conflicts to Come. 15 scenarios for 2030, EUISS, January 2021
« Polar Power Play : Chinese-Russia relations on ice » in Florence Gaub (dir.), Conflicts to Come. 15 scenarios for 2030, EUISS, January 2021
« La pandemia como senda hacia una guerra fria », Vanguardia Dossier 78, janvier-mars 2021
« Curb Your Enthousiasm : What France Expects From a Biden Presidency », World Politics Review, 16 novembre 2020
« The Tensions and Contradictions in Macron’s Diplomacy With Russia and Turkey », World Politics Review, 21 octobre 2020
« Whose Sea ? Untangling the Eastern Mediterranean Great Game », Institut Montaigne, 8 octobre 2020
Through the Looking Glass – Counterpart and The Last Ship: Geopolitics and Pandemics, Institut Montaigne, 17 August 2020
« El orden internacional tras la COVID-19: estados más replegados y potencias más débiles », Anuario Internacional CIDOB, Barcelona Center for International Affairs, mai 2020
« France's Deterrent Strategy and the Indo-Pacific », in Rory Medcalf et al. (ed.), The Future of the Undersea Deterrent, Australian National University, février 2020
Beyond the « Atomic Archive » : Making Sense of Iran’s Nuclear Intentions, Paper n° 57, Friends of Israel Initiative, 15 January 2020
« The Thirty-Year False Peace: A Mostly Free, But Divided Europe », in Slawomir Debski & Daniel S. Hamilton, Europe Whole and Free: Vision and Reality, The Polish Institute of International Affairs, 2019
« Braucht Europa einen eigenen Nuklearschirm ? », Die Welt, 28 November 2019
« The Philosopher and the Practitioner », Inference, vol. 5, n° 1
« The Causes of Peace : The Role of Deterrence », in Asle Toje & Bard Nikolas Vik Steen, The Causes of Peace. What We Know Now, The Norwegian Nobel Institute, 2019
« No first use, no deterrence », Strafasia, 7 October 2019
The death of the INF Treaty or the end of the post-Cold war era, note n° 03/19, FRS 1^st February 2019
« A Second Nuclear Age ? », in Rakesh Sood (dir.), Nuclear Order in the 21^st Century, Observer Research Foundation, Delhi, 2019<br
« Portrait of Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea », Institut Montaigne, 21 December 2018
« Russian Nuclear Policy : Worrying for the Wrong Reasons », Survival, vol. 60, n° 2, 2018
Syria: The “Red Line” Dilemma, Institut Montaigne, 13 March 2018
« Does Russia really include limited nuclear nuclear strikes in its large-scale military exercises? », IISS, 15 February 2018
« Qatar Remains an Important French Partner in the Gulf, But It’s Not the Only One », World Politics Review, 16 January 2018
« Russia’s Nuclear Policy : Worrying for the Wrong Reasons », Survival, vol. 60, N.2 (2018)
« ‘On the Brink’ – Really ? Revisiting Nuclear Close Calls Since 1945 », The Washington Quarterly, vol. 40, No.2, summer 2017
« European Security in 2017: The French perspective », Norwegian Atlantic Committee Security Brief, 1-2017
« Dangerous Games », Survival, vol. 58, No.5, October-November 2016
« After Warsaw : NATO, Russia and the Future of Security in Europe », The Interpreter, 18 July 2016
« With Military Deals, France Asserts Its Presence in the Asia-Pacific », World Politics Review, 15 June 2016
« In French-Australian submarine deal, broader political and strategic context mattered », The Interpreter, 28 April 2016
« After Paris, What Will France Do? », Kyodo News, 19 November 2015
« This is a war of ideas », The Guardian, 15 November 2015
« An Experiment in Strategic Risk-Taking », Survival, vol. 57, No. 5, October-November 2015
« Deterrence at Three : US, UK and French Nuclear Cooperation, Survival, vol. 57, No. 4, August-September 2015
« France’s Hollande Exploits Political Openings to Deepen Gulf Ties », World Politics Review, 20 May 2015
« How Relevant is Nuclear Deterrence Today ? », Nação e Defensa, spring 2015
« A Nuclear Deal With Iran : Prospects and Challenges », European Foundation for Democracy, March 2015
« The view from France : Obama was not in Paris, but America was with us », foxnews.com, 15 January 2015
« Drawing Red Lines Right », The Washington Quarterly, vol. 37, No. 3, Autumn 2014
« Algeria’s Slow March Toward Nuclear Energy », World Politics Review, 22 September 2014
« Mistral Conundrum Leaves France’s Hollande Navigating Competing Interests », World Politics Review, 12 September 2014
« Defense Budget Crisis May Leave Lasting Marks on France’s Military », World Politics Review, 5 June 2014
« Making Iran Come Clean About Its Nukes », The Wall Street Journal, 14 May 2014
« France and the Ukraine Crisis: A Delicate Balancing Act », European Leadership Network (ELN) , 10 March 2014
« Uranium from Niger : A key resource of diminishing importance for France », DIIS Policy Brief, February 2014
« The Four Strawmen of the Apocalypse », Survival, vol. 55, No. 6, December 2013-January 2014
« Hollande’s Israel Visit Smoothed by France’s Iran Stance », World Politics Review, 18 November 2013
« As Hopes for Nuclear Deal Rise, Iran’s Missiles Still Pose Problems », World Politics Review, 9 October 2013
« The Lessons of the Syria Deal, in Iran and Beyond », World Politics Review, 2 October 2013
« Leading on the Cheap? French Security Policy in Austerity », The Washington Quarterly, vol. 36, No. 3, 2013
« The Unexpected Risk: The Impact of Political Crises on the Security and Control of Nuclear Weapons », in Henry D. Sokolski & Bruno Tertrais, Nuclear Weapons Security Crises: What Does History Recommend? (Carlisle: Strategic Studies Institute, 2013)
« A ‘Nuclear Coup’?: France, the Algerian War, and the April 1961 Nuclear Test », in Henry D. Sokolski & Bruno Tertrais, Nuclear Weapons Security Crises: What Does History Recommend? (Carlisle: Strategic Studies Institute, 2013)
« The Demise of Ares: The End of War as We Know It? », The Washington Quarterly, vol. 35, No. 3, summer 2012
« A Nuclear-Armed Iran Would Not ‘Stabilize’ Anything », Réalité-EU, 3 July 2012
« Security Assurances and the Future of Proliferation », in James J. Wirtz & Peter R. Lavoy, Over the Horizon Proliferation Threats, Stanford, Stanford Security Studies, 2012
« Nuclear Doctrines and Nuclear Disarmament », in V. R. Raghavan, Global Nuclear Disarmament. Geopolitical Necessities, New Delhi, Vij Books, 2012
« What Does Iran Want? », Réalité-EU, 28 February 2012
« Yes Sanctions on Iran Can Work », Réalité-EU, 31 January 2012
« Defining the Right Mix of Capabilities : The Irreplaceable Role of NATO’s Nuclear Arrangements », Allied Command Transformation, June 2011
« The broader impact of Fukushima: non-proliferation and disarmament », Kyodo News, 12 September 2011
« The 10 reasons we know Iran wants the Bomb », Réalité-EU, 6 September 2011
« US-French Nuclear Cooperation : Stretching the Limits of National Security Paradigms », WMD Junction, 27 July 2011
« The Climate Wars Myth », The Washington Quarterly, vol. 34, No. 3, summer 2011
« Black Swan Over Fukushima », Survival, vol. 53, No. 3, June-July 2011
« How scared should we be of nuclear power? », The National, 14 March 2011
« To the P5+1: Consider Declaring Diplomatic Process Over », The Huffington Post, 21 January 2011
« History teaches that Iran will choose nuclear weapons », The National, 16 January 2011
« France and nuclear non-proliferation. From benign neglect to active promotion » in Olav Njolstad (dir.), Nuclear Proliferation and International Order, New York, Routledge, 2011
« A Nuclear Iran and NATO », Survival, vol. 52, No. 6, December 2010-January 2011
« Revisiting the Bomb », Survival, vol. 52, No. 5, October-November 2010
« Nuclear Deterrence and Disarmament : The View from Paris » in National Institute for Defense Studies, Major Powers’ Nuclear Policies and International Order in the 21st Century, Tokyo, 2010
« Back to Earth: Nuclear Weapons in the 2010s », Analysis of the Real Instituto Elcano, ARI 110/2010, 25 June 2010
« The Illogic of Zero », The Washington Quarterly, vol. 33, No. 2, April 2010
« Security Guarantees and Extended Deterrence in the Gulf Region: A European Perspective », Strategic Insights, Volume VIII, Issue 5, December 2009
« Nuclear Weapons in Europe – Long Dormant debate Brewing Again », The European, Autumn-winter 2009
« Nuclear Deterrence and Disarmament: Beyond 2010 », The World Today, November 2009
« The Trouble with No First Use », Survival, vol. 51, No. 5, October-November 2009
« France and Nuclear Abolition : The Odd Country Out ? », Proliferation Analysis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 14 October 2009
« Nuclear Myth-Busting », The Nonproliferation Review, vol. 16, No. 2, July 2009
« On War and Peace », Survival, vol. 51, No.3, June-July 2009
« Tailored Deterrence – A French Perspective », in Karl-Heinz Kamp & David S. Yost (dir.), NATO and 21st Century Deterrence, NATO Defense College, 2009
« The Political and Strategic Conditions of Nuclear Disarmament », Notes de la FRS, No. 04/09, 2009
« Why the UAE is a target for France’s nuclear diplomacy », The National, 24 March 2009
« NATO at 60 - Not Yet Retirement Age », European Affairs, winter-spring 2009
« Advancing the Disarmament Debate : Common Ground and Open Questions » in George Perkovich & James Acton (dir.), Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: A Debate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 2009
« French Perspectives on Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Disarmament » in Barry Blechman (dir.), Unblocking the Road to Zero: Perspectives of Advanced Nuclear Nations, The Henry L. Stimson Center, February 2009
« France and Nuclear Disarmament: The Meaning of the Sarkozy Speech », Carnegie Analysis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 2008
« Not a 'Wal-Mart', but an 'Imports-Exports Enterprise: Understanding the Nature of the A.Q. Khan Network », Strategic Insights, vol. VI, issue 5, August 2007
« Deterring a Nuclear Iran: What Role for Europe? », in Patrick Clawson & Michal Eisenstadt, Deterring the Ayatollahs (Washington, DC: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2007)
« Nuclear Deterrence : The French Perspective », in Owen Price & Jenifer Mackby (dir.), Debating 21st Century Nuclear Issues (Washington, DC: Center for International and Strategic Issues, 2007)
« The Last to Disarm? The Future of France’s Nuclear Weapons » , The Nonproliferation Review, vol. 14, No. 2, July 2007
« Nuclear Futures for 2030 », The World Today, February 2007
« Has Iran Decided to Build the Bomb ? », Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2007
« Nuclear Proliferation in Europe : Could It Stil Happen ? », The Nonproliferation Review, vol. 13, No. 3, November 2006
« Is There a 'Transatlantic Convergence' on the Middle East ? », in Esther Brimmer (dir.), « Changing Identities and Evolving Values : Is There Still a Transatlantic Community ? » (Washington, DC : Center for Transatlantic Relations, Johns Hopkins University, 2006)
« Pakistan's nuclear exports: was there a state strategy? », Non-proliferation Education Centre, 12 August 2006
« A Fragile Consensus », The National Interest, spring 2006
« The Iranian Nuclear Crisis » in Ivo Daalder et al. (dir.), Crescent of Crisis. US-European Strategy for the Greater Middle East (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2006)
« France and nuclear deterrence », RUSI Defence Systems, vol. 8, No. 2, Autumn 2005
« The European Union and Nuclear Non-Proliferation : Does Soft Power Work ? », The International Spectator, vol. 40, No. 3, July-September 2005
« Saving the NPT : Past and Future Non-Proliferation Bargains », The Non-Proliferation Education Center, March 2005
« Europe and the arms embargo », in The Rise of China, European Security Forum Series No. 19, May 2005.
« Nuclear Disarmament : How to Make Progress », in Burkard Schmitt (dir.), Effective non-proliferation: The European Union and the 2005 NPT Review Conference, Institut d’études de sécurité de l’Union européenne, Chaillot Paper No. 77, April 2005
« Destruction Assurée : The Origins and Development of French Nuclear Strategy, 1945-1981 », in Henry D. Sokolski (dir.), Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2004).
« The Perfect Storm », Survival, summer 2004
« Nuclear Policy : France Stands Alone », Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, July-August 2004
« The Changing Nature of Military Alliances », The Washington Quarterly, vol. 28, No. 2, Spring 2004
« Nuclear Issues in the Post September 11 Era : Current Trends » in Nuclear issues in the post-September 11 era, Recherches et Documents No. 30, March 2003
« France and the United States : Drawing the Distinction Between Solidarity and Alignment », In the National Interest, vol. 2, Issue 7, 19 February 2003
« Basic Concepts of European Defense Policy » in Esther Brimmer (dir.), The EU’s Search for a Strategic Role. ESDP and Its Implications for Transatlantic Relations (Washington, DC : Center for Transatlantic Relations, Johns Hopkins University, 2002)
« ESDP and Global Security Challenges : Will There Be a Division of Labour’ Between Europe and the United States ? » in Esther Brimmer (dir.), The EU’s Search for a Strategic Role. ESDP and Its Implications for Transatlantic Relations (Washington, DC : Center for Transatlantic Relations, Johns Hopkins University, 2002)
« Do Arms Races Matter ? », The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2001